Trump’s Re-election Prospect gets Dramatically Worse

Since Trump decided to gas peaceful protesters things have gotten really bad for the current occupant of the White House. He is now being denounced by the military. It’s so bad that Republicans in Congress have remained basically silent. They must realize that Trump will probably lose in November and drag the party down with him. Might be a good time to abandon ship:

Senate Republicans are feeling high anxiety over President Trump’s aggressive response to nationwide civil unrest, which they fear is alienating middle-of-the-road voters who are crucial to keeping their majority after Nov. 3.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) declared at the beginning of the election cycle that winning over college graduates and women in the suburbs would be key to retaining the Senate majority in 2020.

With the election five months away, Senate Republicans worry that Trump is blowing up that strategy with his laser-like focus on his base instead of swing voters.

Some Republicans are wising up. They don’t want to lose their jobs and/or control of the Senate:

In a column for the Daily Beast, conservative commentator Matt Lewis said there are indications that more than a few GOP lawmakers will turn their backs on Donald Trump as it becomes clearer that he will go down in a major defeat in November.

Raw Story

The Trump base is not so loyal anymore:

…voters without a college education, who went for Trump in large numbers in 2016 — many resolving to vote after being included in Hillary Clinton’s “basket of deplorables” — are less enthusiastic about Trump this time around.

“]T]his week’s poll finds him leading among those without a [college] degree by only about 3 points, while he is losing voters with a degree by 24 points. That’s a massive edge for Biden among voters with a degree and a much smaller edge for Trump among voters that are a big part of his base,” NBC News reported.

Trump’s “edge” with male voters is also declining. In 2016, Trump had a double-digit lead over Clinton among men, but this time around, “his edge with men has eroded to about 8 points, and his deficit with women has exploded to 21 points.”

Biden doing better than Hillary:

Most times when we look at polling we talk about margins. For example, former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by a 7 point margin in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll out on Sunday. What that can miss, however, is that Biden’s close to 50% (49%), while Trump isn’t anywhere close (42%) in the poll.

Indeed, if you look at the average of live interview polls released since last Sunday, Biden manages to eclipse 50% (51%). That is, he has a majority for now. This is a key milestone that shouldn’t be undersold.

As I’ve noted in the past, Trump’s comeback in 2016 was made considerably easier by the fact that Democrat Hillary Clinton wasn’t polling close to 50%. The average live interview poll taken in June 2016 (when Libertarian Gary Johnson was included) had Clinton at a mere 42%. Not a single one of those polls had her even touching 50%. In fact, she never got close in the average of polls during the rest of the campaign.


Voters don’t think America is doing great. Looks like Trump has broken his promise:

Trump has to win swing states like Michigan again if he has any chance of being reelected. For Michigan it’s looking grim:

Former Vice President Joe Biden has increased his lead over President Donald Trump to 12 percentage points in Michigan, where voters are unhappy with Trump’s response to the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new poll.

Biden, the presumed Democratic nominee, leads Republican Trump in Michigan 53-41, according to a poll conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing between May 30 and last Wednesday.

Detroit Free Press

The old Republican guard have a score to settle with Trump. And they will be a factor in the Fall:

According to a Saturday report from The New York Times, former President George W. Bush and a number of other prominent Republicans will not support Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election.

The Lincoln Project is a group of Republicans who are dedicated to getting Trump defeated in November. Their ads are devastating:

Meanwhile, Trump doesn’t even have a place to hold the Republican convention:

Republican Party officials are in the process of scouting at least ten cities across at least seven states as the party scrambles to find a new location to host portions of this summer’s Republican National Convention.

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